fbpx

Latest Posts

Home

Facebook

Twitter

Search
About

Might Trump Carry Minnesota?

That idea seems farfetched, but both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have begun running television advertising in Minnesota, so their own polling must show the race as reasonably close. An intriguing data point came this morning from the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office: over 77,000 students from 280 high schools cast mock ballots in the presidential election. And guess what? Donald Trump won, by 35% to 33%, with third party candidates and write-ins drawing quite a few votes.

The accompanying spread sheet shows data by school. If you assume that high school kids tend to vote the way they hear their parents talking at home, the results are fascinating. Trump absolutely slaughters Clinton in Greater Minnesota–not just the northern part of the state, but generally outside the metro area. To cite just one of many examples, Trump carried New Prague High School over Clinton 374-151.

On the other hand, Clinton clobbers Trump in the public schools in Minneapolis and St. Paul, e.g. Southwest High School in Minneapolis, where Clinton squashed Trump 1,203 to 36. Along with the public schools, elite private schools voted overwhelmingly for Clinton, while non-elite private religious schools went even more overwhelmingly for Trump. Clinton dominates the inner tier suburbs, while the outer suburbs are variable, but trending toward Trump, while the exurbs went for Trump (e.g., Forest Lake HS, 426-200).

None of this is a surprise, except for the fact that when you net out the candidates’ expected strengths and weaknesses, Trump comes out slightly ahead–at least at the high school level. Of course, not all high schools participated, and some students’ votes are perhaps a rebellion against their parents’ views rather than a reflection of them. We will know in a week whether the high school vote was significant or not. In the meantime, watch for both Trump and Clinton to increase their Minnesota ad buys.

Comments

Subscribe

Categories

Upcoming Events

  • Morning in Minnesota: St. Cloud

    Location: St. Cloud

    Sign up HERE! Courtyard by Marriott St. Cloud 404 West Saint Germain Street St. Cloud, MN, 56301 Please join Center of the American Experiment on Tuesday, July 21 for breakfast with Center policy fellow and education expert Catrin Wigfall as she explains K-12 education in the state and its persistent disparities despite decades of increased spending. Following her presentation, Catrin will lead a Q&A session. 7:30 AM Check In and Breakfast 8:00 AM Presentation 9:00 AM Conclude   Catrin Wigfall is a Policy Fellow at Center of the American Experiment. She is also the director of EducatedTeachersMN and EmployeeFreedomMN. Catrin’s…

    Register Now
  • Kristi Noem: The Courage to Reject a Shutdown

    Location: Online

    Sign up HERE! Join us Wednesday, July 8th for an interview with South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem over Zoom. In response to COVID-19, Noem defied the norm of a statewide shutdown and let South Dakotans choose for themselves what safety precautions to take. Tune in to this live online event to hear how Governor Noem preserved her state’s economy while still keeping citizens safe. Wednesday, July 8th at Noon CT Sign up HERE!  

    Register Now
  • Morning in Minnesota: Marshall

    Location: Marshall Golf Club

      Sign up for this event HERE! Please join Center of the American Experiment on Thursday, July 16 at Marshall Golf Club for a breakfast with Center economist, John Phelan, as he discusses Minnesota’s economic future. Following his presentation, John will lead a Q&A session. 7:30 AM Check In and Breakfast 8:00 AM Presentation 9:00 AM Conclude John Phelan is a graduate of Birkbeck College, University of London, where he earned a BSc in Economics, and of the London School of Economics where he earned an MSc. He worked in finance for ten years before becoming a professional economist. He…

    Register Now