The end of the DFL trifecta, and other partisan shifts in Minnesota

Notes from the day after the night before. Election 2024 saw the end of Democratic party (DFL) monopoly control at the state capitol.

Trump did not prevail in Minnesota, but last night he received more votes than he (or any other Republican) has ever received in state history. A recap:

Trump 2016: 1,322,951 votes, 44.92 percent of the total vote.

Trump 2020: 1,484,065 (45.28%)

Trump 2024: 1,518,449 (46.68%)

I’m certain the 2024 totals will change slightly with the final results. In each try, Trump increased both his vote totals and his vote share. In fact, you have to go back to 2004 to find a Republican presidential candidate who drew a larger share of the vote (George W. Bush 47.61 percent, on fewer total votes).

Even with favorite son Tim Walz on the top of the ticket, the Harris-Walz ticket fell behind 2020’s Biden-Harris ticket in terms of both total vote and vote share in Minnesota last night. In fact, Harris-Walz received a smaller share of the vote than the Walz-Flanagan gubernatorial ticket did in either the 2018 or 2022 races.

The evenly divided (33-33) state senate was up for grabs with a single open seat in District 45 (Lake Minnetonka area) on the ballot. Democrats held the seat with a 52% to 47% margin of victory.

The Republican challenger for District 45, Kathleen Fowke, fell short, again, but improved on her 2022 totals in both votes 21,128 –> 26,969 and vote share 43.67 percent –> 47.47 percent. Perhaps the third time will be the charm.

With last night’s District 45 victory, Democrats regain their 34-33 majority. But keep in mind that sitting senator Nicole Mitchell faces her felony burglary trial in late January, right in the middle of session.

The real breakthrough for Republicans last night came in the state house of representatives, where all 134 votes were on the ballot.

Republicans turned a DFL 70-66 majority to a 67-67 tie. Two DFL state representative are facing recounts, defending leads of 13 and 28 vote, respectively. The Minnesota Star Tribune notes that we’ve seen this before,

If the House ends up evenly split, it wouldn’t be the first time – but it has been quite a while. The House last convened with a 67-67 tie in 1979. In that case, leadership agreed to have Republicans take the speakership and divided control of powerful committees and committee subdivisions between the parties.

So, barring a recount surprise, we’re headed for a power sharing arrangement in the state house. Democrats will need Republican votes to pass any and all legislation in 2025.

Not everyone is taking the new arrangements in stride, here’s our state Attorney General on Twitter (X),

Sounds insurrectiony.

Developing…