NERC: MISO at ‘high’ risk of blackouts in normal peak conditions
The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) published its 10-year outlook on Tuesday, and the forecast isn’t looking good: accelerating plant retirements, escalating demand growth, and declining dispatchable resources will put half of North America at risk of blackouts in the next five to 10 years.
Confirmed generator retirements will amount to 52 GW by 2029 and 78 GW over the 10-year assessment period but announced retirements that have not yet begun formal deactivation will bring the total to 115 GW by 2034. Peak reserve margins fall below requirements “in almost every assessment area.”
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which covers most of the Midwest, including Minnesota, is at NERC’s highest risk rating of “high,” where “shortfalls may occur at normal peak conditions,” rather than just “elevated” risk. MISO shortfall risks begin in 2025 and NERC describes that “resource additions are not keeping up with generator retirements and demand growth” and that “reserve margins fall below Reference Margin Levels (RML) in winter and summer.”
NERC’s report describes MISO’s predicament:
Additional coal-fired generator retirements and slower-than-anticipated resource additions since the 2023 LTRA have caused a sharp decline in anticipated resources beginning next summer (2025). In addition, MISO’s peak demand forecast has risen in 2026 and later, further lowering reserve margins compared to the 2023 LTRA. PRMs in MISO for both summer and winter are projected to fall below the RML reserve margin requirements as new generation is insufficient to make up for generator retirements and load growth (Figure 3 and Figure 4). Delays to generator construction in MISO result in a 2.7 GW shortfall by 2029. MISO reports 56 GW of nameplate generating capacity, predominantly solar and batteries, with signed generation interconnection agreements as of July 2024 that can help meet resource adequacy needs if connection is completed.
Planned generator retirements, replaced by “variable” (intermittent, unreliable) resources, are coming at the same time as electricity demand is growing for artificial intelligence and data centers.
One solution that would provide carbon-free, reliable electricity is to build more nuclear power plants, which is currently impossible in Minnesota due to the moratorium on new nuclear construction. The Minnesota Rural Electric Association (MREA) president and CEO Darrick Moe said:
“We must heed the warnings issued by our not-for-profit regulatory authorities about the future of power supply in our region. We can’t continue to shut down plants and delay the permitting of generation resources that will help shore-up Minnesota’s reliability.”
“A moratorium preventing Minnesota utilities from building new carbon-free nuclear power is inappropriate,” Moe said, “we must understand how policies impact our reliability.
MREA’s X/formerly Twitter account said, “We must end the nuclear moratorium! It’s time for Minnesotans to open the conservation to all types of reliable carbon-free energy!” We wholeheartedly agree.
NERC recommends that regulators “carefully manage generator deactivations,” policymakers “streamline siting and permitting processes to remove barriers to resource and transmission development,” and grid operators “continue to ensure essential reliability services are maintained.”
Utility Dive reports:
America’s Power, which represents various industries involved in coal-fired power generation, said its analysis indicates utilities plan to retire almost 60,000 MW of coal capacity by the end of 2029 — and the retirements will happen alongside a 128,000 MW rise in demand.
“Fortunately, utilities are already postponing the retirement of power plants in some regions of the country, but utilities in other regions need to follow this trend,” America’s Power President and CEO Michelle Bloodworth said. “With electricity demand exploding due to electrification, data centers, and industrial growth, something has to give, or we will damage our economy and leave Americans without electricity.”
The National Mining Association, which represents coal producers, said “the grid reliability math isn’t adding up.”
“An increasingly dangerous situation will be untenable without a sharp change in policy,” NMA President and CEO Rich Nolan said in a statement. “Surging electricity demand is colliding with an unworkable regulatory agenda that is producing self-imposed scarcity, undermining affordability and reliability.”
It’s good to see “explosive” demand growth bringing attention to the importance of affordable, reliable energy. But residents within MISO — and Minnesota — ought to be prepared for blackouts, potentially in normal conditions, unless policymakers delay coal-fired generator retirements and stop replacing 24/7 baseload power with intermittent sources like wind and solar.