Lockdowns did not save lives

Coming out of the pandemic, one of the biggest questions in policy research has been whether COVID-19 restrictions hurt or helped our state. One way that this question has been answered is by analyzing whether the lockdowns saved lives.

According to a study reported by KARE 11 news, compared to its neighbors, Minnesota had better health outcomes. Ergo, the restrictions saved lives.

According to data available on July 1, 2021, the difference in the COVID death numbers in the Upper Midwest is striking.

Minnesota has the lowest death rate since the start of the pandemic – 136 deaths per 100,000.

Wisconsin – where COVID restrictions were imposed in population centers like Milwaukee and Madison but were blocked statewide by Republican lawmakers – wasn’t far behind at 139 deaths.

In Iowa and North Dakota – where Republican governors opposed most restrictions – the CDC data shows the death rate was significantly higher than Minnesota.

In Iowa, the corresponding death rate was 194.

But does that prove that lockdowns saved lives in Minnesota? The answer is not quite straightforward.

Updated CDC data, for example, shows that overdose deaths increased 35 percent in Minnesota and 29 percent nationally in 2020. Lockdowns contributed significantly to this trend.

Overdose deaths soared to a record 93,000 last year in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government reported Wednesday.

That estimate far eclipses the high of about 72,000 drug overdose deaths reached the previous year and amounts to a 29% increase.

“This is a staggering loss of human life,” said Brandon Marshall, a Brown University public health researcher who tracks overdose trends.

The nation was already struggling with its worst overdose epidemic but clearly “COVID has greatly exacerbated the crisis,” he added.

Lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions isolated those with drug addictions and made treatment harder to get, experts said.

So, while lockdowns may have prevented some COVID-19 deaths, they also increased deaths from other causes, such as overdoses. Statistically speaking, looking only at COVID-19 mortality does not provide sufficient evidence of whether lockdown orders saved lives or not.

Empirical evidence

A new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way of analyzing the effect of lockdowns on mortality.

By using excess mortality, which compares the number of all deaths at a given time with expected deaths, the study provides more concrete evidence on whether lockdowns potentially reduced COVID-19 deaths without increasing non-COVID deaths.

Overall, the authors of the study found no evidence that lockdowns saved lives. In fact, lockdown policies were associated with an increase in excess deaths in the weeks following their implementation. Additionally, the study found no evidence that states that implemented lockdown orders earlier (or had them for a longer period) faced lower excess deaths.

Looking at how Minnesota performed when it comes to deaths from other causes, like overdose or excessive alcoholism, it is easy to see that lockdowns lead to an increase in non-COVID deaths. According to the CDC, Minnesota’s 35 percent increase in overdose deaths was the highest among its neighbors. South Dakota even saw a decline in overdose-related deaths.

Indeed, Minnesota has a lower COVID-19 death rate among its neighbors, but that is no cause to celebrate lockdowns.