Approvals for Minnesota’s Paid Family and Medical Leave scheme are running 19% above forecast

Since it launched, as and when the data have become available, I have been tracking the performance of Minnesota’s Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) scheme against the forecasts on which it is based. Milliman, an actuarial firm, submitted an analysis in February 2024 which recommended the 0.88% payroll tax rate with which the scheme was launched. This analysis forecast a daily rate of approvals of 361 (131,868 / 365).

A couple of weeks ago, I noted that the state government had stopped issuing its periodic updates on PFML approvals. Today, the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) announced that “In the first six months of successful operations, about 75,000 Minnesotans have been approved to receive benefit payments.” This works out at a daily rate of approvals of 419 (128,338 / 179), or 16% above forecast.

MPR News reports that “[DEED deputy commissioner Evan] Rowe said the state would consult an actuarial analysis this month to determine whether the payroll tax rate for workers and employers would need to increase from the current level.”