COVID-19 cases are falling nationwide

Today, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) reported 561 new COVID-19 cases. This is one of Minnesota’s lowest numbers since the peak of the pandemic. COVID-19 outcomes — cases, hospitalizations, deaths — have continued to improve in the last couple of weeks. On February 21st, for instance, 235 people were hospitalized for COVID-19, 87 percent less than the November peak of 1,864.

We see this trend nationwide as well. Regardless of differences in lockdown measures, cases and deaths are falling together nationally, albeit at different rates. In the past 6 weeks, national COVID-19 cases have dropped 77 percent. 

There have been numerous explanations offered for this trend. Researchers have pointed to the probability that the virus is seasonal — cases drop and fall in a cycle. Others have credited the drop to herd immunity from vaccines as well as people already infected.

According to a professor from Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, 

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

It is also quite possible that people are taking more precautions to prevent the spread of the virus. Warming weather and a decline in testing are also potential contributors.

In short, not one single answer explains the trend for declining COVID-19 cases. What is clear, however, is that lockdowns do not explain this trend. Despite differences in lockdown policies, COVID-19 trends have been similar across regions.

With different restrictions, Minnesota and Wisconsin faced identical results

Consider how Minnesota and its neighbors have fared with COVID-19.  Minnesota and its neighboring states followed very different lockdown procedures. But cases have moved similarly among the states, peaking around November.

Source: Covidtracking.com

Minnesota and Wisconsin offer an even better point of comparison. The neighbors are similar in so many ways that matter for infection, such as population, weather. The two states also differed significantly on COVID-19 measures.

But looking at data, COVID-19 outcomes between the two states have been nearly identical. Due to stringent lockdown laws, Minnesota has performed worse economically, with one of the highest job losses in 2020.