It’s democracy and the economy, stupid!

The first post-election survey of Minnesota voters.

As Minnesota extends its nation-leading streak of voting for the Democratic presidential nominee to 52 years, political and cultural observers would be remiss to ignore a shifting undercurrent that gave former president and candidate Donald Trump 1,519,032 votes in the 2024 election — the most ever by a Republican candidate. American Experiment used the most recent Thinking Minnesota Poll to find out why Trump performed so well, even though he lost Minnesota. This post-election poll provides valuable insights into the issues and coalitions that ultimately allowed him to win in key battleground states and complete the biggest comeback in modern political history.

The poll was conducted by Meeting Street Insights, a nationally recognized polling operation based in Charleston, S.C. Interviews were completed Nov. 18-21, 2024, among 500 registered voters in Minnesota who voted in the November 5th election using a mix of cellphone and landline interviewing. The margin of error is +-4.38 percent. 

Protecting democracy was the top issue  

Protecting democracy turned out to be the top issue for Minnesota voters when making their choice for president with 83 percent saying it was “very important” or the “most important” issue. Harris voters led the way with 91 percent very important/ most important, but Trump voters were not far behind at 76 percent. Although the issue appeared non-partisan, campaign rhetoric suggests Trump and Harris voters came to this conclusion for different reasons.  

The message from the Harris campaign and the mainstream media that Trump will rule like a fascist, put his enemies in jail, and perhaps cancel the next election resonated with Democrats in Minnesota. At one point, Walz even accused Trump of commemorating a 1939 Nazi rally at New York City’s Madison Square Garden simply because the venues were the same. The 35-point gap between protecting democracy and pocketbook issues for Harris voters tells you all you need to know about the importance of this issue for Minnesota Democrats.  

While Republicans shared the concern about democracy, they viewed it through a different lens. Their concern involved the weaponization of the U.S. Justice Department and the abrupt and last-minute removal of Pres. Joe Biden from the presidential ticket. Republican skepticism still lingers about the narrow margin of the 2020 election, the media censorship of Hunter Biden’s now-notorious laptop, and the collusion of the FBI and social media to control information. It’s fascinating (and encouraging) to see that most voters saw through the mainstream media narrative about the threat to democracy. In fact, it seemed to backfire and motivate Minnesotans to vote for Trump. 

It was the economy, stupid  

After protecting democracy, voters in the Thinking Minnesota Poll indicated economic issues were a significant factor in deciding how to vote. Seventy-two percent of respondents said the economy and jobs, as a category, was a very important reason they voted for president. Just below that at 71 percent was inflation and the cost of living. The combination of these two pocketbook categories was the dominant issue in the presidential election for Minnesota voters.  

Using the Minnesota vote as a proxy, the key to Trump’s victory in swing states appears to be his advantage with voters motivated by pocketbook issues. Trump had an 18-point advantage with voters who chose the economy and jobs as most important and he won inflation-motivated voters by 22 points. While Harris won the “protecting democracy” voters, the margin was only 12 percent. Harris handily won voters who chose abortion as their top issue, but it wasn’t enough to make a difference.

The Trump advantage over the aforementioned “most important” issues begs the question: How did Harris win Minnesota? Volume. The sheer number of Democratic voters keeps Minnesota blue even when the Republican candidate Governor Walz’s addition didn’t really help Harris’ cause here in Minnesota. is better aligned with those voters on the issues. However, Trump’s raw number of 1.5 million votes indicates this “blue” isn’t as solid as it seems. 

Walz did not help the ticket  

Closer to home, the Thinking Minnesota Poll examined the Tim Walz effect on the presidential ticket. Did Walz perform as well as former Minnesotans and vice-presidential icons Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale? Not really. Only 23 percent said having Walz running made them more likely to support Harris while 24 percent said it made them less likely. Perhaps the most damning number is the 53 percent of Minnesota voters who said choosing Walz made no difference at all on their decision to back Harris. After six years of lazy coverage from the local press, Minnesotans were finally exposed to the inconvenient truths of the governor’s record and his habit of lying about details to improve his image. Walz had a neutral impact on the Harris ticket in Minnesota and, in the process, damaged his reputation with home-state voters. 

What drove Trump voters? 

Determining the motivation of Minnesota’s Trump voters requires a deeper analysis of the data. Trump voters were asked a series of questions about their support, beginning with the Not Concerned woke agenda. Eighty-eight percent of them said they were concerned about boys playing on girls’ sports teams with 80 percent extremely concerned. Eighty-four percent were concerned about gender transition surgery for minors, with 78 percent extremely concerned.

Next, we asked about Elon Musk’s plan to lead a government efficiency commission to audit federal agencies and eliminate wasteful spending. Minnesota Trump voters love this idea: 96 percent said they support it, 74 percent strongly. 

The ideas of incoming Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. — known as the Make America Healthy Again agenda — were also tested. Eighty-six percent support stricter regulations on America’s food supply and 74 percent would support a ban on pharmaceutical advertising. There were smaller majorities for limiting vaccines and removing fluoride from the water supply.

First-time Trump voters  

Because Trump received many more votes in 2024 than he did in previous elections, isolating first-time Trump voters in Minnesota uncovered some valuable information. Although the sample size turned out to be too small to be statistically significant, the data is presented here in the spirit of interest. About 15 percent of Trump’s Minnesota vote came from first-time Trump voters, and they are not the traditional conservative voters who make up his base of support. Almost half were young men aged 18-54 and 43 percent identified themselves as pro-choice. Forty-six percent were political independents. They were squarely focused on jobs, the economy, and inflation. This data tracks with national exit polling showing strong Trump support from young, independent men. 

Abortion returns to its normal place in politics 

Abortion has been a motivating force for voters (pro and con) in every election since the Roe v. Wade decision in 1973. It will likely remain an important issue for state legislatures after the Dobbs decision of 2022. But Minnesotans (especially those who support abortion) seem to understand that abortion is widely available in Minnesota and without threat of being taken away. Simply put, abortion was not a major factor in the 2024 presidential election for Minnesota voters. Several interesting points emerged from the polling data. 

First, abortion was the sixth most important issue impacting respondents’ choice of which candidate to support for president, with only 15 percent choosing it as the most important issue. Protecting democracy, the economy and jobs, inflation, health care, and crime were all more important.  

Second, 26 percent of self-identified pro-choice voters voted for Trump. That means over a quarter of pro-choice voters felt comfortable enough about the issue to cast their ballot based on other issues such as inflation and the economy.  

Third, only 53 percent of women over the age of 55 listed abortion as their top issue. This is proof that the narrative of older women standing in solidarity for the “rights” of their daughters and granddaughters was more rhetoric than reality.  

Fourth, even suburban voters, who kept Democrats in power in 2022 mainly on the issue of abortion rights, chose economic issues over abortion this year.  

Lastly, 53 percent of voters believe the abortion issue will get better or stay about the same in a new Trump administration, signaling most voters are not concerned about the issue, a fascinating data point for a state like Minnesota. 

Local races: DFL vs GOP  

One final takeaway from our post-election poll is that Democratic voters in Minnesota are much more disciplined when it comes to supporting their entire ticket. Minnesota Republican voters are more likely to split their vote between candidates from both parties. This explains why 86 percent of Harris supporters voted for all or mostly Democratic candidates, while only 79 percent of Trump voters stuck to the party line. That seven-point difference in party loyalty is why we have a tie in the Minnesota House of Representatives heading into the 2025 session.  

It’s hard to believe Trump lost Minnesota when looking at this state data, but the post-election Thinking Minnesota survey does provide a wealth of insights into how he won the rest of the country.