Polling ICE

What Minnesotans think about Operation Metro Surge

Democrats in St. Paul are attempting to make the 2026 session about Operation Metro Surge and ICE. The numbers from our recent Thinking Minnesota Poll should give them pause. Minnesotans strongly support the mission of the surge and are split on the tactics, despite the onslaught of biased media coverage. Eighty-one percent of poll respondents support deporting illegal immigrants who have a criminal record in the U.S. or abroad — the mission of the surge. This policy was popular across all political subgroups with 94 percent support from Republicans, 80 percent from Independents, and even 71 percent from Democrats.

Minnesotans are more divided when it comes to widening the target of deportations. Still, 48 percent of respondents support deporting as many people as possible who are here illegally — not just those with criminal records. That’s a surprisingly high number considering the environment in Minnesota.

What about the tactics, though? Surely Minnesotans agree with the “ICE OUT” sentiment seen at protest sites and on highway overpasses. Minnesotans are actually split on the presence of ICE in the state, with 45 percent supporting their presence and 53 percent opposed. That’s likely the high-water mark for “ICE OUT” fervor since the poll was taken Feb. 16-18, 2026, just as the announcement was made to wind down Operation Metro Surge. Anti-ICE sentiment will fall in the weeks and months to come as news coverage of ICE raids and protests is replaced with the next round of fraud indictments (which we know are coming). Keeping ICE at the top of the legislature’s priority list will be a difficult task for Democrats in the House and Senate.

We also asked poll respondents what they thought of the ICE rhetoric coming from local leaders like Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. Fifty percent told us they made the environment more heated with their comments, with only 25 percent saying leaders helped reduce tensions. Minnesotans believe Tim Walz and Jacob Frey made the situation worse with their divisive rhetoric. They followed the COVID pandemic playbook during the ICE surge by scaring people out of going to work, visiting restaurants, and even bringing their kids to school. They also encouraged the violent protests, with Walz calling ICE a “modern-day Gestapo” and Frey telling ICE to “Get the f*#@ out of Minnesota.” It’s a hopeful sign that Minnesotans recognize the heated rhetoric for what it is.

When Tom Homan took over the surge in Minnesota, he repeatedly called for cooperation from local law enforcement with federal agents. Seventy-two percent of Minnesotans support cooperation on efforts to find and arrest undocumented immigrants who have been convicted of crimes in Minnesota. Support in our poll for local cooperation was consistent with recent polls taken by KSTP and KARE 11.

In a press release about the poll results, American Experiment President John Hinderaker said, “After weeks of ICE protests dominating the local news, the Thinking Minnesota Poll shows a silent majority supports the mission of ridding our state of criminal illegal aliens.”

It’s worth noting that 75 percent of respondents further support ensuring remaining illegal immigrants cannot vote in Minnesota elections, including 71 percent of Independents and 62 percent of Democrats.

Unfortunately, the Thinking Minnesota Poll did reveal disturbing changes in Minnesotans’ attitudes about protesting — namely, higher levels of tolerance for certain tactics — compared with a previous poll taken in March 2024.

The number who believe it’s okay to stage a demonstration or protest at the home of a government or elected official you disagree with politically increased nine percent.
The number who believe it’s okay to shut down roads and highways to protest increased seven percent.
The number who believe it’s okay to publicly confront and shoutdown a government or elected official you disagree with politically increased five percent.
The number who believe violent acts are necessary in some cases to achieve a better society and government increased two percent.

The February poll also gauged reactions to the January anti-ICE protest that disrupted a worship service at Cities Church in St. Paul, Minn. Eighty-three percent did oppose the practice of interrupting a service at a church you disagree with politically. (All 39 people involved in that protest have been indicted and arrested, including national media figure Don Lemon and St. Paul School Board Member Chauntyll Allen.)

Finally, the number of Minnesotans who believe the state is on the wrong track hit a record high of 65 percent. That’s a significant 16-point jump in just five months. Record-high wrong-track numbers can’t be good for the party in charge of the House, Senate, and governor’s office. Leaders should pause and consider whether their agenda truly aligns with the concerns and priorities of Minnesotans.