The copper crash

Mining restrictions and impossible EV requirements are on a collision course with reality.

The International Energy Forum’s April 2024 report, “Copper Mining and Vehicle Electrification,” found that manufacturing 100 percent electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035 (in effect “electrifying the global vehicle fleet,” as the report states) would require 55 percent more new mines than would have to open otherwise.  

To meet “business-as-usual” needs between 2018 and 2050, 115 percent more copper will need to be mined than has ever been mined in human history. This does not include what is necessary for electric vehicle construction and the increase in transmission capabilities needed to accommodate charging demands. Net zero by 2050 is even more implausible.  

According to the report, copper mine output will increase by 82 percent between 2018 and 2050 due to demands from the developing world, which consumed 74 percent of copper refinery output in 2022. An EV future would need 55 percent more new mines than that baseline, and replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources like wind and solar would need 4.6 times that baseline.  

The report notes that land access for mining exploration has become increasingly restricted, despite increasing mining exploration budgets, and that “after many years of effort mine permit applications have been canceled in Alaska, Minnesota … and substantial acreage has been removed from exploration in Minnesota.”  

“We have been optimistic in our projected new mine creation needs,” the authors write, pointing to the decline in discovery, permitting, and potential mine closures throughout the study period.  

The report recommends that policymakers consider a push toward 100 percent hybrid electric vehicles rather than the strict 100 percent EV goals. According to the report, hybrids “require 29kg of copper compared to 24kg for an [internal combustion engine] vehicle” and life cycle emissions “are comparable with” fully electric vehicles. In a University of Michigan News story, Adam Simon, a professor of earth and environmental studies at the university and coauthor of the report, says, “a Toyota Prius actually has a slightly better impact on climate than a Tesla.”  

Consumers should be free to choose whatever vehicle makes the most sense for their needs, not pushed into 100 percent electric or 100 percent hybrid options. However, the report concludes with an agreeable and commonsense statement:  

“For the longer term, it is important that copper exploration and mine development be encouraged, starting now. The EU and U.S. should demonstrate on their own territories that increasingly responsible mining can be carried out and thereby prove that they consider mining to be important and are willing to do their share of it.”  

If the U.S. wants to meet the demand for Artificial Intelligence data centers, cellphones, and the many “business-as-usual” ways that we use minerals — let alone try to meet unworkable mandates for 100 percent vehicle electrification — it should promote domestic mining.