The magic middle
From school choice and spending cuts to nuclear energy, Minnesotans in the middle align with commonsense conservative viewpoints.
A lot has been written about the polarization of American politics in the era of Pres. Donald Trump. The left suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome, or TDS, and the right is a memo from DFL party headquarters, no matter how popular or unpopular the issue may be to the broader public. In this quarter’s poll, the party identification split 43 percent doing their best to “own the libs” on a daily basis. But what about the vast majority of Americans who don’t consider themselves left or right? What about the middle? The spring edition of the Thinking Minnesota Poll provides us with some answers to that question, at least in the Land of 10,000 Lakes (and 10,000 opinions).
We’ve been administering this quarterly poll for over five years and can confirm that Minnesotans are very polarized. On issue after issue, Republicans and Democrats head to their corners and respond according to their political identity. This is especially true of Democrats. Over the life of our poll, a small group of respondents (25-30 percent) reliably answer questions as if they received a memo from DFL party headquarters, no matter how popular or unpopular the issue may be to the broader public.
In this quarter’s poll, the party identification split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican, and 16 percent Independent, in line with state voting patterns and consistent with previous Thinking Minnesota Polls. As always, our poll was conducted by Meeting Street Insights, a nationally recognized polling operation based in Charleston, S.C. Interviews were completed Feb. 11-13, 2025, among 500 registered voters in Minnesota who voted in the Nov. 5 election using a mix of cellphone and landline interviewing. The margin of error is +-4.38 percent.
Results mirrored our previous polls on a range of topics and themes: Minnesotans in the middle align with commonsense conservative viewpoints.
The issues
Now that House Democrats finally showed up for the 2025 legislative session, all eyes have turned to the most important job voters elected them to do: passing a balanced budget. While the 2026-27 budget has a small surplus, the next budget is projected to have a $6 billion deficit. The $23 billion swing from a $17.1 billion surplus in 2023 to a $6 billion deficit a few years later is whiplash-inducing. How is this even possible? More importantly, what should policymakers do about it?
We asked Minnesotans how they would close the gap between spending and tax revenue, and 60 percent said spending cuts are preferable to tax increases. Have we finally reached the point where Minnesotans are ready to follow the lead of the federal Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and decrease the footprint of state government?
The parties predictably went to their corners on this issue, with 89 percent of Republicans choosing “cut spending” while 49 percent of Democrats answered, “raise taxes.” Where is the middle? Seventy-three percent of Independents support spending cuts. Only eight percent support raising taxes. In fact, the only participants in the poll who want to raise taxes are Democrats. Of the 114 respondents who chose this option, 105 identified as Democrats. When it comes to spending and taxes, Democrats, like Gov. Tim Walz, are out of step with the middle.
Because 60 percent of respondents preferred spending cuts to tax increases, we followed with the billion-dollar question: Where would you cut? Presented with the four most significant areas of the state budget (health and welfare programs, K-12 education, higher education, and public safety programs), 35 percent preferred cutting higher education first. Health and welfare programs and public safety were second and third at 24 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
Independents picked higher education as their top area to cut (43 percent), which helped move it to the top of the list. Republicans chose health and welfare programs, and Democrats picked public safety. But the larger point remains: Regular Minnesotans want Walz and the legislature to use spending cuts, not tax increases, to balance current and future state budgets.
The middle (and everyone) supports school choice
The February Thinking Minnesota Poll showed widespread and sustaining support for school choice, which reinforces a top legislative priority for American Experiment in 2025. Our goal is to pass an Education Savings Account (ESA) bill that will allow parents to direct $7,000 toward the education that best fits their child’s needs. This initiative, $7k for Kids, is a partnership with Opportunity for All Kids (OAK), and aligns with the interests of Minnesotans across the political spectrum. Despite persistent attacks from the teachers’ union and the rest of the education cartel, 69 percent of Minnesotans support the right of parents to use the tax dollars designated for their child’s education to send them to the public or private school that best serves their needs. Support is essentially unchanged from when the issue was polled in 2023.
The concept of school choice found majority support among Republicans (90 percent), Independents (66 percent) and even Democrats (51 percent). Once again, the middle is more closely aligned with commonsense conservatives when it comes to school choice.
Similar results were found on the more specific $7k for Kids proposal. Education Savings Accounts were supported by a majority of Republicans (64 percent) and Independents (54 percent) but only a plurality of Democrats (49 percent).
Another popular issue with all three groups of poll respondents was lifting Minnesota’s ban on nuclear energy. Support has grown since Thinking Minnesota last polled this issue back in September 2021 from 58 percent to 65 percent. That support was driven by Republicans, with a 62-point spread between support and oppose (80-18 percent). Independents registered a 27-point spread (59-32 percent) while Democrats only supported new nuclear power 53-41 percent, a 12-point spread. Adding safe, clean nuclear power to Minnesota’s energy mix is one of the issues that could attract support from both parties in this year’s closely divided legislature.
The middle is not happy with the DFL boycott
The last two issues in the Thinking Minnesota Poll that garnered firm opposition from Independents were the House Democrats’ boycott at the start of the session and the DFL senator accused of burglary who continues to vote while awaiting her trial. Independents (68 percent) joined Republicans (94 percent) in rebuking House Democrats for not showing up during the first three weeks of session. Only Democrats in the poll sided with the boycott strategy at 75 percent.
Democrats also stood alone in their support for Sen. Nicole Mitchell (DFL-Woodbury) continuing to cast votes on the Senate floor while she awaits her trial for felony burglary this summer. Mitchell successfully petitioned the court to delay the trial until after the session. Independents (55 percent) sided with Republicans (63 percent) in believing it is inappropriate for Mitchell to continue casting the deciding vote on legislation with an impending trial. Leaders in both parties (including Gov. Walz) have called for her to step down from the Senate.
In the five-year history of the Thinking Minnesota Poll, one thing has remained constant: Minnesotans who don’t align with either political party agree with the commonsense conservative position on the most important issues facing our state.