Midwest retiring the most coal capacity by 2028: EIA
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the Midwest is planning to see the the most coal capacity retire by the end of 2028, at 10 GW of capacity. Retiring reliable baseload power will endanger the reliability of the grid and risk rolling blackouts across the region.
The EIA notes that the total capacity of U.S. coal-fired power plants is scheduled to fall from 172 GW to 145 GW by the end of 2028. A majority, or 58 percent, of the planned coal retirements are anticipated to be in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic grids.
Coal plants have been under regulatory siege, with “regulations regarding emissions that require plants to add equipment, modify processes, or stop operation.” Coal use has also declined as natural gas has gotten cheaper, as well as depressed wholesale electricity prices from subsidized wind and solar projects.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is reconsidering two rules, which could grant coal plants a reprieve. One would return to 2012 regulations on mercury and other air particulates, which have led to 90 percent lower mercury emissions in 2021 over 2012 levels and sharp reductions in other pollutants. The other proposes to roll back greenhouse gas emissions standards on coal plants and recognizes that the requirement for carbon capture would be not be technically feasible. The rule would have required coal plants to retrofit to capture 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032 or retire by 2039.
However, utilities and grid operators have needed to plan for this situation, as well as meet state-level mandates like Minnesota’s 100% clean electricity by 2040 mandate. That means 10 GW of Midwest coal-fired capacity is scheduled for retirement by the end of 2028, and 5 more GW in the Mid-Atlantic, 4 GW in Tennessee, and 3 GW in the Northwest.
