Minneapolis crime in more context

A Promising Trend

Crime in Minneapolis appears to be trending down so far in 2025. For the first time in years, a review of the Minneapolis Crime Data Dashboard shows that the number of crimes is down compared to the same time last year and compared against the year-to-date three (3) year average.

Of significance is the drop in many serious and violent crimes: Assaults are down 10%, burglaries -16%, auto theft -20%, shots fired -19%, gunshot victims -30%, carjacking -39%, robbery -45%, and murder -54%. Below is the screenshot of the dashboard through March 19, 2025.

Victory Lap

The Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) and the city has the right to take a victory lap on these reductions in reported crime — and they did in a press conference yesterday highlighting the improvements, specifically in North Minneapolis.

Most importantly the chief and mayor highlighted what is largely behind these decreases — focused, proactive policing, and tough prosecution by the US Attorney’s Office.

“Although it is early and crime typically drops in the winter months, the positive crime trends continue into 2025, with the number of assaults, homicides, and burglaries all down. 

The reduction in violent crime is attributed to a combination of focused enforcement, proactive policing, community engagement, cooperation with community groups and partner agencies, and the significant impact of federal RICO cases aimed at dismantling organized crime. The Minneapolis Police Department has worked diligently to rebuild its staffing levels and increase community engagement, ensuring more resources are directed toward the areas that need them most. The City of Minneapolis and MPD remain focused on continuing this work through targeted policing strategies, community engagement, and continued partnerships with law enforcement agencies.” 

Excerpt of Mayor Jacob Frey’s Press Release

“From day one, my focus has been on reducing violent crime by targeting the small group responsible for the most harm without negatively impacting the communities affected. Our officers’ dedication, along with the support of our federal, state, and local partners, and community groups, has been invaluable. We’re making real progress, and it’s encouraging to hear residents feel safer. But our work isn’t done. We remain committed to building trust, strengthening partnerships, and ensuring every neighborhood is safer tomorrow than it is today.” 

Chief Brian O’Hara 

Important Context

While the crime picture has brightened in early 2025, one must continually view crime data in Minneapolis in more context.

• The MPD remains woefully understaffed with about 550 total officers and command staff. While there is data to suggest the staffing situation is beginning to rebound, in 2019 former Chief Arradondo conducted a staffing study and recommended to the city council that Minneapolis would need 1,300 officers by 2025. Today’s complement of officers is just 42% of that recommendation.

• The violence-interrupter effort in Minneapolis has been a debacle up to this point, with millions of dollars in funding going to citizen groups which have provided little to no documentation of how the money was spent. At a recent city council meeting, the head of one of these groups, “21 Days of Peace” strong-armed the meeting causing a recess, because some on the council had not supported the group’s contract being renewed. Then, earlier this month after it was reported the group had received a new contract worth nearly $650,000, two of its violence interrupters fired 65 rounds of automatic gunfire during a dispute near 36^th and Penn Ave. No. Both men were charged with felony weapons violations, and the contract with 21 Days of Peace has been withdrawn.

• The MPD is just one year into its consent decree with the Minnesota Department of Human Rights. The current monitor, Effective Law Enforcement For All (ELEFA) has connections to several current consent decrees — New Orleans PD and Baltimore PD — both of which have struggled to show improvements in crime reduction, while criticism of the consent decree process has grown significantly. Time will tell if the process helps or hinders the MPD’s ability to reduce crime.

• The city has doubled down on its unwillingness to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) by sharing information on unauthorized immigrants who have committed crime. This burdens the MPD by forcing it to police a percentage of the population that shouldn’t be here. Ironically, the policy also makes it more likely that ICE will make arrests and deportations of individuals not involved in crime who would not have come in contact with ICE had ICE not been forced into the community to look for people recently in MPD custody. The sanctuary policy involving criminal offenders needs to change.

• The two-and-a-half-month crime drop in early 2025, comes on the heels of another tough year of crime in 2024. While representing just 7 percent of the state’s population, Minneapolis’s share of the state’s entire crime rate was: 30% for aggravated assault, 46% for murder, 56% for robbery, and a staggering 91% for carjacking. Despite media efforts to show that Minneapolis’s crime rate was trending down from post-George-Floyd era highs, the 2024 violent crime rate (murder, robbery, assault, and rape) in Minneapolis remained 45% higher than it had been in 2018. (Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer and the MNBCA’s Crime Data Explorer — 2024 VC rate 1164/100,000, 2018 VC rate 800/100,000).

While early 2025 crime numbers in Minneapolis look promising, the timeframe is short and the list of variables that could change the trendline remains long. Center of the American Experiment will maintain watch and continue to evaluate the situation in context.