Minnesota public school enrollment projected to be down in 2031

A recent K-12 student enrollment forecast published by Statista, a data gathering and visualization platform, projects Minnesota K-12 public school enrollment will decline nearly two percent (1.8 percent) from 2021 to 2031. As I wrote in February, enrollment in the state’s traditional public schools has dropped for the past three consecutive years. Private school and charter school enrollment have increased.

Along with Minnesota, the presented data suggest that 36 other states and the District of Columbia will experience a negative percentage change in K-12 public school enrollment over the 10-year period, with the U.S. average projected to drop 5.1 percent. Thirteen states are projected to experience public school enrollment growth, with Idaho (11.9 percent), North Dakota (6.1 percent), and Florida (4.6 percent) predicted to register the largest gains.

No explanation is offered as to what could be driving the enrollment changes (migration, birth rates, dissatisfaction, etc.).

Projected Percentage Change in Public School Enrollment for Grades K-12
by U.S. State, 2021 to 2031

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Statista