The ‘lone wolf’ threat
The information about who and what was behind the deadly terror attack in New Orleans early New Year’s Day has now been vetted. As of yesterday, the FBI has concluded that the perpetrator Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, acted alone as a “lone wolf” attacker, inspired by ISIS.
Early speculation
The fog of war that exists in the early hours of an event, coupled with the 24-hour news cycle and endless speculation on social media, had led to a great deal of inaccurate speculation. Early reports suggested among other things that Jabbar had just passed over the Mexican border two days earlier, that there were at least four other co-conspirators, and that the attack was part of a coordinated series of events that included among others, a vehicle explosion that outside the Las Vegas Trump Tower later on January 1. Those accounts have all been determined to be unrelated or inaccurate.
The FBI’s own information releases early on did not help contain the speculation, when the 2nd in command of the New Orleans FBI office initially announced this wasn’t yet a terrorism investigation, but only an IED (improvised explosive device) investigation. This was apparently out of an abundance of caution, as the FBI had been named the lead investigative agency in the initial hours of the event — a process mandated by Presidential Decision Directive (PDD-39) which directs the FBI to assume the lead role in terror investigations. There was no doubt from the earliest moments that it was a terrorist event.
What we know
Two full days of investigation have determined that Jabbar is a U.S. citizen who resided in Houston. Jabbar had been a soldier in the U.S. Army serving active duty from 2006-2015 and as a reservist from 2015-2020. Jabbar deployed to Afghanistan from 2009-2010. He reportedly was wearing military fatigues and a ballistic vest during the attack.
Jabbar went through a divorce in 2022 and reportedly became a radicalized Islamist inspired by ISIS in recent years. There’s no indication at this time that he had come to the attention of the FBI or any other authorities prior to the attack.
On Monday 12/30/24, Jabbar rented a white Ford pickup from the online car rental app Turo (the same app used by the perpetrator in the Las Vegas vehicle explosion). He left Houston on Tuesday for New Orleans (a 5.5 hr drive) with the intent to attack New Year’s revelers on Bourbon Street.
During the trip, just hours before the attack, Jabbar left several posts on social media indicating he had joined ISIS before the summer and had intentions to kill. Jabbar wrote that he had originally planned to kill his family, but came to realize that would not “focus on the war between the believers and disbelievers.” It’s not clear whether anyone observed these posts or notified any law enforcement before the attack occurred.
Once in New Orleans, Jabbar checked into an AirBNB in the St. Roch section of town just a short distance from Bourbon Street. After midnight, Jabbar placed at least two coolers on sidewalks in the French Quarter which reportedly contained IEDs with the ability to be remotely detonated. These actions were recorded by surveillance cameras and the footage was located after the attack. At least four people were also seen opening the coolers but were later determined to be uninvolved. It’s unclear what they observed in the coolers or if they reported the coolers to authorities as being suspicious.
Shortly after 3:00 am, Jabbar drove the rental pickup up, now flying an ISIS flag off the rear of the truck, on the sidewalk and around an occupied police squad car that had been positioned to block access to Bourbon Street. Authorities have stated that robust bollards that had been installed to prevent vehicle access to Bourbon Street were under repair in preparation for the Super Bowl in February in New Orleans. This left the area more vulnerable as squad cars and other less formidable barriers were used, and ultimately defeated by Jabbar.
He then sped a distance of about two blocks through groups of people who were celebrating New Year’s on the street. Jabbar struck dozens of people, killing 14 and injuring at least 35 others. He then crashed into a piece of machinery and got out with a firearm and began shooting at people and the responding police officers. Some of the first police to respond were able to shoot and kill Jabbar. Two officers were wounded during this exchange of gunfire but are expected to survive.
A search of the rental pickup revealed firearms to include an AR-15 style rifle and IEDs. It does not appear any of the IEDs possessed by or placed by Jabbar were detonated — a very fortunate development as they would have caused untold additional casualties and significantly complicated the emergency response to the area — which is exactly the intent of their deployment.
Lone Wolf
Following the attack on 9-11, a great deal of investigation led to the development of methods designed to detect and deter such complex and coordinated attacks. The more people involved in the planning and carrying out of an attack meant the attack was more likely to be detected before it could be carried out. Rather than trying to become even more complex and coordinated, Islamist terror networks recognized the value of simplicity. Since then, they have focused their effort on inspiring would-be assassins around the world to attack as “lone wolves.”
Lone wolves are encouraged through the internet, some mosques, magazines, and other means to plan and carry out their attacks on a smaller level without support from anyone else. It is a particularly evil development and one that is extremely difficult to detect and prevent.
The simplicity aspect has led to less emphasis on the use of chemical, biological, and explosive devices, and more emphasis on small arms and vehicle ramming. A single person, with no outside help, and no sophisticated weapon can bring terror and a sizeable number of casualties to any gathering of people, and it’s almost impossible to stop.
An article by the National Library of Medicine highlights the emergence of vehicle ramming attacks and offers an analysis of ways authorities are attempting to deal with the threat. The article noted that as of 2022, “Vehicle-ramming attacks have increased in the last decade, with at least 62 attacks in cities including London, New York, and Berlin, killing over 240 people and injuring more than 1000.” The article pre-dates many recent events including the vehicle-ramming incident just a few weeks ago in Magdeburg Germany that left 5 dead and hundreds injured at the site of an outdoor Christmas market.
The fact is we will all need to brace ourselves for more lone wolf attacks. The virtual open border in the US over the past four years only increases the likelihood these attacks will occur here with more frequency. But as we have seen in this attack, the threat can also be homegrown.
We will need to increase vigilance at all gatherings of people, return to an emphasis on “see something, say something,” and improve methods to physically prevent vehicular access to areas where people gather.
While the lone wolf threat is difficult to prevent, it can be curtailed. We must first acknowledge where the threat has predominantly come from — Islamist terror networks. It has not been helpful in recent years for federal officials to take their eyes off this threat — i.e. labeling white supremacy, for example, as the “single biggest threat” facing us domestically.
To be successful, we must acknowledge the threat, then focus on reducing our vulnerability. Foremost, we must re-awaken from the complacency that success in thwarting such threats has naturally brought about over time.
Terrorists won’t stop devising ways to terrorize — we can’t stop anticipating their next moves.