The secret habeas files

Fewer than half of illegal alien habeas corpus petitioners are being released from ICE custody, since an important 8th Circuit appeals court ruling in late March.

Reportedly, during the height of Operation Metro Surge, more than 90 percent of illegal aliens asking for release from ICE custody were successful in their habeas corpus petitions filed in federal district court in Minnesota. Nearly 1,300 habeas cases have been filed so far in 2026 in Minnesota. At the peak of the Surge, we averaged more than a case filed per hour, 24/7 for weeks on end.

But on March 25, the St. Louis-based 8th Circuit federal appeals court ruled in a Minnesota habeas case that the statutory language of “shall be detained” was indeed the law of the land. Since then, and with the end of the Surge, case filings have slowed to a little over 2 per day, on average.

I’ve been tracking 148 habeas cases filed, so far, following that March court ruling, and here are the results I’ve tabulated,

Nearly half of the cases (71) filed are still pending as the process grinds on. Three cases were transferred to other federal districts.

Another 20 cases were dismissed with the mutual agreement of both parties. It’s difficult to tell what the underlying outcome of these cases were. In one instance it was recorded that a Bulgarian native decided to return voluntarily to his homeland, short circuiting the habeas process.

Of the cases where a final resolution has been recorded, the presiding district judge denied 16 petitions outright and granted outright release in 20 cases. In a further 18 cases, the judge ordered a bond hearing to be held in the separate U.S. Immigration Court. In these proceedings, the immigration court judge denied release in 11 cases and the detainee ended up released in 6 others. One bond hearing is still pending. That works out to a 26-27 release/denial record among the 53 cases to record a final outcome.

So habeas cases have gone from a slam dunk for detainees seeking release to something more like a coin flip. Results depend on the facts in individual cases, of course, but individual judges have taken very different approaches to handling these procedures.

I will continue to monitor these proceedings.