Tobacco use among Minnesota youth on steady decline since 2000
On January 26th, Governor Tim Walz unveiled his budget proposal for the 2022-23 biennium. Named, Minnesota’s COVID-19 Recovery Budget, Walz has proposed, among other things, to raise taxes on cigarettes, and also create a new tax on vapor products. This is meant to reduce tobacco use among the youth.
These proposals have now been dropped from the most recent budget proposal. However, efforts aimed at fighting nicotine addiction among the youth are still ongoing and will likely continue in the near future.Just recently, the House passed a bill to raise the excise tax per pack of cigarettes by $1.50. The bill also raises taxes on cigars and other tobacco products by 2 percent. In addition, a bill in the House, if passed, would also ban flavored tobacco and other tobacco products.
But are tax hikes the magic bullet that policymakers say they are? Evidence generally suggests that the youth are more sensitive to cigarette prices than adults. However, more research has shown that the youth have become less responsive to taxes. Yet despite that fact, tobacco use among the youth has been consistently going down. This suggests that tobacco use trends have potentially more to do with social factors than tax hikes. Evidence exists supporting the influence of social factors on tobacco use among youth.
Youth tobacco use in Minnesota
According to a survey by the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH), even after accounting for e-cigarettes, total current tobacco usage — use in the past 30 days — among High school students was 20.5% in 2020, down from 38.7% in 2000. Among middle school students, tobacco usage was 4.1% in 2020, down from 12.6% in 2000.
Indeed, e-cigarette use has been going up, but this has been accompanied by reduced use of more dangerous tobacco products like traditional cigarettes. Research shows that increased e-cigarette use contributes significantly to a lower use of traditional cigarettes.
In 2014, the Minnesota Department of Health reported that students who smoked were more than twice as likely to report that they lived with a parent or relative who smoked. In the years that adult tobacco use has declined, we have also seen a decline in youth tobacco use.
This suggests that tobacco use among the youth is heavily influenced by social surroundings. And while taxes might play a role, it is not a significant one. Policymakers should know that raising taxes will have little to no effect on reducing smoking among the youth.