Cases are rising, but more restrictions aren’t necessary
Minnesota has been in the news recently, and not for a good reason. Even with all its strict rules, Minnesota has been labeled a COVID-19 hotspot.
The fact that cases are rising despite stringent restrictions is perhaps the latest sign that lockdowns contribute little, if anything, to COVID-19 outcomes. This is why Gov. Walz’s decision not to impose more restrictions in response to the surge would be a good idea if he follows through.
Why restrictions are not necessary
But leaving aside the fact that restrictions don’t work, there are other reasons to consider as well.
For one, this surge is different from the other ones before, in important ways. For instance, the recent rise in cases has not been linked to a corresponding significant uptick in deaths and will likely remain so. This is mainly because the majority of the most vulnerable — seniors aged 65 and older — have been vaccinated.
As reported by the Star Tribune,
Minnesota ranked 10th worst among states for its rate of new infections, and 12th worst for the rate of new COVID-19 hospital admissions, according to the latest White House COVID-19 Team state report. However, the state only had the 40th highest rate of COVID-19 deaths in the seven-day period ending April 1.
Hospital leaders have reported fewer deaths and better outcomes among the latest cases — with the average age of hospitalized patients dropping from the mid-60s to the mid-50s — but said the sheer numbers are putting pressure on their capacity at a time when they are treating many non-COVID patients as well.
Most of the rise in cases is among younger people who are at a lower risk of sickness from COVID-19.
To the extent that the new rise in cases could overwhelm our health system, there is reason to worry.
However, current ICU COVID-19 hospitalizations are still significantly down from Minnesota’s peak last Nov/Dec. If anything, the reduction in Minnesota’s ICU capacity in recent months is to blame for the current pressure on hospital capacity.
Figure 1: Current hospital capacity
Source: Minnesota Department of Health
Figure 2: ICU capacity, November 2020
