Data show that, since 2018, Minnesota has had average population growth but below average job growth

Last week, I noted that Minnesota’s job growth since 2018 had been less than one third the national rate. As I’ve noted before, these estimates of jobs come from the Establishment survey which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects as part of its Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.

The unemployment rate was reported earlier this month, down to 4.4%, still above the national rate. This comes from the Household survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of its Current Population Survey (CPS) which gives us the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).

The LAUS break down each state’s “Civilian non-institutional population” — which the Census Bureau defines as “All U.S. civilians not residing in institutional group quarters facilities such as correctional institutions, juvenile facilities, skilled nursing facilities, and other long-term care living arrangements” — into those who are in the labor force and those who are not. Those who are in it are further broken down into those who are employed and those who are not but are looking; the unemployed.

How have these numbers changed over the longer term and how do those changes compare nationally?

The LAUS show us that Minnesota’s civilian non-institutional population increased by 5.3% between 2018 and 2025 — or 232,041 — which put us right in the middle of the pack, as Figure 1 shows.

Figure 1: Growth in civilian non-institutional population, 2018 to 2025

We do not fare so well on employment. Minnesota’s employment growth of 2.3% — 68,956 — between 2018 and 2025 ranks below 31 states, as Figure 2 shows.

Figure 2: Growth in employment, 2018 to 2025

This must mean that the growth rate of that share of Minnesota’s civilian non-institutional population which is either unemployed or out of the labor force entirely has increased at an above average rate; indeed, that is what the data show. As we see in Figure 3, the share of Minnesota’s population which is either unemployed or out of the labor force completely increased by 11.4% between 2018 and 2025, a rate greater than in 32 states.

Figure 3: Growth in unemployed + not in labor force, 2018 to 2025

Another way to look at this is to see how well Minnesota has done relative to the United States generally in generating employment for the new members of its population. As Figure 4 shows, while 48.7% of entrants into the United States’ population between 2018 and 2025 have gone into employment, in Minnesota the figure is just 29.7%.

Figure 4: Population growth by employment status, 2018 to 2025

If we put all this together, Figure 1 shows that our state’s potential labor force — the civilian non-institutional population — is growing at an average rate, but all the others show that Minnesota is doing a below average job of generating jobs for them.

Does this sound like the fifth best state for business?