Approvals for Minnesota’s Paid Family and Medical Leave scheme are running 26% above forecast

Last week, I noted that in its first two weeks of operation, Minnesota’s paid family and medical leave (PFML) scheme was seeing a rate of approvals that was 54% higher than forecast. “I expected a surge of applications when the scheme launched and a higher daily rate of approvals because people can take time off in 2026 for events, such as having a child, which occurred in 2025,” I noted. “As a result, I held off writing this until more information became available.”

Yesterday, more information became available.

The Pioneer Press reports that:

Minnesota’s new paid family and medical leave program is off to a steady start, with more than $30 million in payments and 13,700 benefit approvals in its first month, according to data state officials shared Monday.

The Pioneer Press says that “The 13,700 approvals are slightly above pace for the 130,000 people the Department of Employment and Economic Development [DEED] expects in the first year.” In fact, DEED forecast a daily rate of approvals of 352 (128,338 / 365) and the reported figures work out a rate of 442 (13,700 / 31), which is 26% above forecast. Is this “slightly above”?

As I noted last week:

…the number is boosted in part by early applications for child bonding leave — something known in paid leave circles as a “baby bump.”

That initial bump is expected to even out over time.

“We’ve seen weekly applications start to trend down over time … in line with experience in other states,” DEED Deputy Commissioner Evan Rowe said in a call with reporters Monday.

But the longer the approval rate is above that 352 forecast, the further it will need to fall later to meet it. To match the forecast for the year, approvals would need to fall to 343 a day ((128,338 – 13,700 = 114,638) / (365 – 31 = 334) = 343). Is this likely? Let us hope so.

DEED has, so far, made decisions on just 21,000 — 55% — out of 38,000 applications.