Governor and legislative leaders think they have a deal
Minnesota legislative leaders and Governor Walz have come to an agreement to avoid a government shutdown. But we’ve been here before, only to have that deal announcement interrupted by a noisy protest led by the people who were supposed to vote for it. However, the Governor seems to be confident enough to set a special session date for Monday, June 9, at 10:00 a.m.
As the Minnesota 2025 budget session dragged on, speculation built around whether the legislature would finish their work between the May 19th end of session and the first of July, when biennial funding runs out and state government “shuts down.” Of course, it doesn’t really shut down entirely. Core functions of the government are deemed essential to continue to work, while others stay home until a deal is reached.
We are now in the process of “pre-shutdown” when the state sends threatening letters to employees warning of a shutdown and an impending end to their paychecks. To put maximum pressure on the legislature, the state agencies will often emphasize things like the need to close parks and wayside rests for the Independence Day visitors. Disruptions in pay cause undue stress for state employees. No legislator wants to march in a 4th of July parade during a shutdown to hear “Get your job done!” So it is no surprise that they will avoid that if they can.
Although the deadlines are necessary to running the state, the most lasting impact from a session close has more to do with the dynamics of the negotiation between a governor and the legislative leaders. Minnesota is unusual in that we are in a minority of states that have state legislative majorities and governors who are more often than not from opposing parties. That sets up an interesting dynamic.
Governor wins, legislature wins
In 2023 and 2024, the DFL controlled the House and Senate, creating a trifecta for the Democratic party. Walz famously said that elections are won to “burn political capital” rather than bank it. He then pushed through a progressive agenda that put him on the national map. It also played a role in the Minnesota House DFL losing its majority in 2024. In 2023, leaders in the DFL were overjoyed that the narrow majorities did nothing to temper the zeal for enacting legalized marijuana, driver’s licenses for illegal aliens, repealing abortion restrictions and spending the entirety of the state’s $17 billion surplus while raising taxes. The new state flag, adopted without any votes from the opposing party was seen as a DFL banner of total victory. In 2023 and 2024, the governor won, and the state DFL legislature won, but after the 2024 election, House Democrats may have wished that a little less capital was burned.
Governor Wins, Legislature loses
Because of the nature of the political structure and our state Constitution, the Governor has more power than the legislature. When the legislature is divided, it increases the relative power of the governor. Although there is a tie in the House, and a narrow DFL majority in the Senate, the House GOP can prevent anything from moving ahead, so we once again have a GOP Speaker and divided government. This increases the chances that 2025 will be Governor-wins-legislature-loses outcome.
A scenario where the Governor loses is so rare, that it’s hardly worth mentioning. In 2011, after a long shutdown, then-Governor Mark Dayton announced an end to the shutdown because he was agreeing to the last GOP offer. While republicans were celebrating, Dayton went to the residence and wrote down what he thought the GOP offer was. He didn’t really agree with anything but used humility to get more stuff. He also was able to steer away from the electoral shellacking that could have resulted from holding out for tax increases and progressive social policies.
Facing a legislature led by the opposing party in both chambers, Governor Pawlenty also had his back against the wall as the shutdown clock ticked away. Pawlenty unexpectedly signed the 2007 omnibus DFL spending bills while avoiding the political fallout because of crafty negotiating and shrewd vetoing.
2011 and 2007 was a rare Governor-wins-legislature-wins year with divided government. 2025 could also feature this rare outcome. The progressive left caucus in the Minnesota Senate and House are so far out there that on certain issues (like MinnesotaCare for illegal aliens) they cannot vote for the same omnibus bills that the GOP will accept. This created an opening for Speaker Lisa Demuth and Minority Leader Mark Johnson. Their votes will determine what kind of agreement was reached.
Whether the session deal sticks and what’s in it remains to be seen.