How kindergarten performance can predict 3rd grade academic success 

For the fourth year in a row, Minnesota third-grade reading proficiency has declined. Math proficiency has also dropped for the last couple of years.

National research suggests one reason those numbers keep sliding: for a lot of struggling students, their academic trajectory is largely set in kindergarten.

A new brief from NWEA tracked more than 400,000 students who started kindergarten in the fall of 2021. NWEA is the nonprofit behind the MAP Growth test used in classrooms nationwide, and its data offer a clear picture of how early achievement gaps become harder to overcome over time.

Kindergarteners who scored in the bottom 20 percent had only a 1 in 10 chance of reaching reading proficiency by third grade, with similarly low odds in math. If those students were still in the bottom 20 percent by the end of first grade, their odds of reaching proficiency dropped further, to roughly 1 in 50.

Megan Kuhfeld, NWEA’s director of growth modeling and data analytics and the study’s lead author, told Education Week the most striking finding was how quickly kids who started behind lost the chance to catch up. Students generally needed to enter kindergarten well above average to have a high likelihood of reaching third-grade proficiency.

The data is part of a long-standing pattern, according to Education Week. “For decades, research studies have shown that kindergartners’ and 1st graders’ early reading difficulties can lead to persistent challenges in literacy.” Third-grade scores are also highly predictive of success in later grades.

Data from the DIBELS early literacy screener of approximately 250,000 students nationally found similar results. About half (49 percent) of kindergarteners who entered school behind in reading caught up by third grade, and the likelihood of them catching up decreased with each subsequent grade level.

The NWEA brief found that students who started behind were somewhat more likely to catch up in reading than in math. Many states have spent the last decade building out universal reading screening, early literacy interventions, and science of reading laws requiring instruction to be aligned with evidence-based practices. Minnesota’s own 2023 READ Act is one such reform. The NWEA findings should also prompt similar efforts to strengthen early math instruction, an area that has lagged behind reading for years.

Whether these new laws ultimately change classroom practice will depend on implementation, as well as buy-in from teacher preparation programs, district leaders, and individual teachers. The Minnesota Department of Education has said the full impact of the READ Act won’t be visible until 2030, when the first cohort of kids who started kindergarten with fully trained teachers will have reached third grade.

But instructional fixes alone shouldn’t be viewed as the silver bullet to Minnesota’s persistent literacy challenges. A kid who is chronically absent, or who is disengaged in class, isn’t going to be rescued by a well-designed literacy block alone. That student may need a different school or a smaller program, or a tutor who can build a relationship and encourage engagement.

The NWEA data make it clear how narrow the window for intervention really is. If a child’s assigned school is not meeting their needs in kindergarten or first grade, every additional year makes catching up less likely. Families should be able to respond while that window is still open.

With Education Savings Accounts (ESAs), Minnesota families could use the state dollars allocated for their child’s education to help them access a nonpublic school or homeschool, pay for reading tutoring, or special education services.

Gov. Tim Walz should also opt Minnesota into the federal scholarship tax credit provision taking effect Jan. 1, 2027. This would benefit eligible students in all learning environments, including public school students who could use the scholarships to pay for reading tutoring and supplemental learning expenses. 

The majority of Minnesota students will continue to be educated in the state’s public schools. So more investment in early math instruction and additional legislative action on the READ Act all need to happen. But for a kindergartener who’s already behind, the NWEA data also make clear that families with struggling children don’t have the luxury of waiting for the system to catch up to the research.