Out with the old

Economic issues are driving a new coalition of Minnesota voters.

For some years, Republicans have been talking about forming a multi-ethnic working-class and middle-class coalition that would be an electoral majority. In 2024, it actually happened.  

We now see that a winning multi-ethnic working- and middle-class coalition is not only possible, but it has also come into being. The long-held Democrat belief that they had a firm grip on young voters is no longer solid. In fact, age makes little difference in the new coalition. Democrats did win the 18-29-year-old category, but only by 52 percent to 46 percent. Going up the age scale hardly mattered. Donald Trump won 47 percent of those ages 30-44, 52 percent of those 45 to 65, and 51 percent of those over 65.  

These numbers suggest that we are looking at a radical reordering of America’s political land- scape. How do Minnesota voters, as sampled in our Thinking Minnesota Poll, fit into this story?  

The multi-ethnic working-class and middle-class coalition is held together by common economic interests and cultural beliefs. Our polling finds that both Republicans and Democrats listed “democracy” as a reason for voting for their candidate more often than anything else. But that turns out to be mostly a measure of partisanship.  

Beyond that, you quickly get to core economic issues. Trump won the election mostly on account of the cost of living and the open southern border. In Minnesota, he trounced Kamala Harris among voters motivated by the economy and jobs (18-point margin), the cost of living (22 points), and crime, drugs, and public safety, issues that are closely tied to illegal immigration (26 points).  

Trump’s voters were united on cultural issues as well. Several issues that were not on the radar just a few years ago were very strong for Trump. Eighty-eight percent of his voters were concerned about men playing in women’s sports. Eighty-four percent were concerned about sex change operations on minors, something Gov. Tim Walz says he wants Minnesota to be known for. And 68 percent were concerned about anti-Semitism on college campuses.  

Minnesota has been slower to change than other states, but change is coming. The DFL party has farmers and laborers in its name, but there aren’t many farmers or laborers left in the party. Most have either turned Republican or dropped out. Looking ahead, a multi-ethnic working- and middle-class coalition, organized around economic issues and cultural values that aren’t extreme, could be as potent in Minnesota as it has around the country.  

Our Thinking Minnesota Poll reveals another sleeper issue. Governments are the greediest institutions in our society, and they constantly soak up more of our resources, largely because they make little effort to prevent waste and fraud. A serious effort to control spending, at either the federal or the state level, will permit tax cuts directly benefitting working families who desperately need relief. 

So the time has come for a focus on wasteful spending. In Minnesota, American Experiment uses our annual Golden Turkey Award to draw attention to useless spending in our state. In our polling, Minnesotans showed great enthusiasm for Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, to be headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. An astonishing 96 percent of Trump voters support his DOGE plan.  

If we can add a focus on reduced government spending and lower taxes to the economic issues of less inflation and better job creation, along with closing our borders to illegal immigrants and avoiding faddish, far-left cultural experiments, the multi-ethnic working- and middle-class coalition could be in power for a long time to come.