Minnesota’s income numbers are above average now, but for how much longer?

Last week, I noted that per capita GDP has grown more slowly in Minnesota than nationally in every year since 2014, that median household incomes in Minnesota have grown more slowly than nationally in six of the last seven years, and that Minnesota’s per capita Personal Income growth is lagging the national rate.

In response, a Mr. Ronald Sorensen emailed to inform me that Minnesota “has higher personal and household income averages than the red (red neck) states.” However inelegantly stated, it is certainly true that Minnesota’s averages are above average.

But for how much longer? Look at how this “premium” from living in Minnesota is evolving. As I noted last week:

…as recently as 2014, per capita GDP was 8.2% higher in Minnesota than nationally. By 2022, that ‘premium’ was down to 2.0%, its lowest in at least a quarter of a century.

What of median household income?

…in 2014, the median household income was 25.3% higher in Minnesota than nationally. By 2022, that “premium” was down to 13.6%. This trend is not as striking as it is for GDP per capita, but it is certainly one to watch.

The same is true for Personal Income. In 2012, per capita Personal Income in Minnesota was 7.1% above the that of that United States; by 2022, that ‘premium’ was down to 4.0%, higher than only in 2021 in the last 25 years.

We need to think about the future of our state, and that means we have to go beyond patting ourselves on the back about where we are, but think honestly about where we’re going. In terms of per capita GDP and Personal Income, those above-average numbers which Minnesotans like to boast about will, on current trends, soon be a thing of the past. Median household income will probably hold up better, but, as I noted yesterday, that will be a result of each Minnesota household having, on average, more workers in it.

Minnesota’s income numbers are above average. Lets keep them that way.