Where Minneapolis leads…
In September, 2016, the Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal reported: Starbucks is expanding its presence in the Twin Cities with several new shops in the works, including one in downtown Minneapolis.…
In May, I wrote about Census Bureau data which showed that in 2021 Minneapolis lost 3,678 residents (a decline of 0.9% in its population):
To put this in context, in terms of population Minneapolis and St. Paul ranked 46th and 62nd out of 795 cities across the United States in 2020. If we create a peer group of 47 cities (the two cities plus the 15 ranked above Minneapolis, the 15 ranked between Minneapolis and St. Paul, and the 15 ranked below St. Paul), Table 1 shows that 20 (42%) saw population increases in 2021. Not only were Minneapolis and St. Paul among those 27 cities that saw their populations decline, they also saw relatively steep declines, ranking 36th and 42nd out of 47 respectively.
More data backs this up. On Sunday, CNBC reported:
A record number of potential U.S. homebuyers are seeking to relocate, according to a report published last week by real estate brokerage firm Redfin. The report ranked the cities Redfin users appeared most likely to try to leave — San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York topped the list.
Minneapolis cracked the top 10.
Redfin attributed much of this to high housing costs and it is true that excessive taxes, fees, and regulations have effectively made it illegal to build housing that’s affordable in the Twin Cities.
Which cities are people fleeing to? The top ten destinations are:
As CNBC note: “Florida, California and Texas each have multiple cities on that list.” Indeed, Florida alone accounts for 40% of these cities, a fact which also supports Census Bureau data. As I noted in December, in 2021 Florida and Texas “gained an impressive 391,197 residents.” California, by contrast, lost 367,299 residents in 2021, so Sacramento and San Diego are bucking that trend.
Minneapolis, and Minnesota more broadly, has some things stacked against it: the weather and crummy sports franchises, for example. For a long time it was able to offset these natural disadvantages by offering good schools, low crime, and affordable living. If our state loses those, we will continue to see people fleeing for better cities and states.